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Folding Pocket AA's

By SOULWARRIOR
Aug 27, 08 02:15 AM

If you are in the WSOP ME final table and you are on the short stack, and 2 players go all in before you, and you have a chance to move up to 3rd place and get paid a $1,000,000 dollars more in prize money instead of 4th place finish; would you fold your pocket AA's and guarentee your self an extra million dollars, or would you go for the win and push all in with a 4 to 1 shot of becoming the chip leader?


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COMMENTS

POSTED BY:
Symon

Aug 27, 08 10:32 AM

First, your stated odds are incorrect. You are 4 to 1 against ONE and only ONE other pkt pr. With two or more opponents your odds decrease dramatically. If I was the short stack (since I'm already in the money and going to get something if I lose) I would probably take my chances and push all-in. But folding can be argued to also be correct. One of these two will lose and I'll possibly advance another seat. Are you playing for the win? Being short, you're not likely to get a better shot!

POSTED BY:
Hayloftkid

Aug 27, 08 12:23 PM

CALL all the way. No better chance to become an allout winner than to triple up! No way do I fold three handed there. Already made a boat load of money. Go for the hardware now!

POSTED BY:
Egor

Aug 27, 08 01:52 PM

In the WSOP I would go ALL IN, Hear at spade club FOLD!!!

POSTED BY:
BiggieStyle

Aug 27, 08 05:11 PM

Fuck yes you go for the win. Call both of them, the chance that you are way ahead is 99% and 1% to have someone else with AA. CALL.

POSTED BY:
knowitsriged

Aug 27, 08 06:35 PM

only way u fold is your playing your rent $$$ and looking to advance...other than that would probabbly be the stupidest thing to ever do....u do see a lot of people play scared money...

POSTED BY:
Ivanisi

Aug 28, 08 10:49 PM

I would look at my wife behind me and I am sure I would fold because if I could have another million by folding she would hold out the "goods" . Or else call and sleep on the couch win or lose. Also when I folded, they would both have same hand and split and I would be unlucky as usual.

POSTED BY:
jontm

Aug 29, 08 08:34 AM

Got to go here, but on the bubble maybe not. We have blogged intensley on the old AA horror stories and situations. I think the majority rule was; if its arace between no money or seat, fold. All other circumstances double up or go broke! with 3 players including yourself, aren't you the favorite? Most hands can end well here......

POSTED BY:
Yoccos

Aug 29, 08 11:01 AM

AA has 73% equity vs 13% and 13% using a Monte Carlo simulation and 2 random hands. If another player has an Ace it jumps to 78% vs 7% (A-x) and 14% (random)

POSTED BY:
Yoccos

Aug 29, 08 11:01 AM

AA has 73% equity vs 13% and 13% using a Monte Carlo simulation and 2 random hands. If another player has an Ace it jumps to 78% vs 7% (A-x) and 14% (random)

POSTED BY:
LSchumner

Oct 10, 08 01:48 PM

google "Independent Chip Modeling (ICM)"

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