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Cracking Aces in Tournament Play
By Writer94566Aug 25, 08 03:26 PM
Even those players without much ego love to tell a story about when they “cracked Aces” because we all love seeing the pained expression on another poker players faces when they lose a hand that they are holding Aces in the hole. Of course when we explain to others how deep our understanding of poker allows us to achieve the impossible, well, who doesn’t love being viewed as a “Poker Wizard” by rail birds; of course, our detractors are only to eager to point out our flawed thing; this reminds me of just a situation by World Series of Poker Main Event Champion, Greg Raymer. Raymer is one of the most humble men that I have ever met, inside or out of poker; it was at the Million dollar event, the WPT Shoot Stars in San Jose, California.
I had weaved in and out of traffic for fifty minutes on highway 680 from my home in Pleasanton on my way to the WPT Shoot Stars at the Bay 101 Casino in San Jose, California. This WPT event is considered the most fan friendly event on the World Poker Tour because the fans turn out in big numbers to greet the professional poker players and cry out for their autographs which all the players gladly take time to sign autographs and pose for pictures, except for one player, Phil “Cry like a baby after losing” Hellmuth, as he holds his hands above his head and looking down at the pavement, he says to no one in particular, “I’m late, no autographs, please!” and Phil “I can dodge bullets and autographs, too” Hellmuth enters the Bay 101 Casino after the starting gun has sounded. Of course, most TV announcers will notice and comment on his tardiness, thus Phil “I love all discussions about me on TV” Hellmuth is willing to sacrifice a few hands for TV time and he usually finds a way to get noticed once again.
But I digress, it was Greg Raymer that I spotted and he was walking up the adobe archway, so I approached him by saying, Mr. Raymer I know that you want to rush in and play but I was hoping that I could get a quick autograph, please.” Raymer responded, “I will always take time to visit with the fans, time is no problem. What’s your name?” I told him and he immediately used it by saying to another autograph seeker, “Could you take a picture of Bill with me?” I was my beaming; my newest friend, the reigning WSOP Main Event Champion was calling me by my name as if we had been friends for years! WOW!
By the way, Raymer had noticed my camera and it hit me later that he had been not only alert but thinking ahead as he put it all together simultaneously – just like he does in a tournament. Raymer had posted this hand in an online discussion group where in he called a very tight player’s unusually large pre flop raise with Q-9os (off suit) because as Greg explained, “I knew he had Aces and I had implied odds if I hit.” Well, Greg Raymer hit a flop of trip nines and busted the other player, winning an enormous pot!
Like I always say, everything in poker is situational. What is the person’s poker playing style? Is he or she a loose aggressive player of a tight to the vest player that only plays premium pairs of A-K? Is he or she playing position; what is you position pre flop? Get the picture? Right!
If you have a pair preflop, typically you have two outs. Your odds of flopping trips are approximately 7.5 to 1 on the flop. If you are knowledgeable about your opponents and have a reliable read on their betting patterns, then you can make a Raymer like read on them, too. However, counting suits, there are approximately 20,000 possible flops but only 1,326 starting hands and not counting suits there are 169 starting hands that are grouped in 13 pairs, 78 suited cards and 78 unsuited cards. However, while many of these flops are garbage, there are draws that give you are pretty fair chance to out draw a high pocket pair. Hole cards like 6-7, 7-8 and 8-9 especially in the suits other than the high pocket pair are in as it is generally agreed to have the highest chance to out draw the high pocket pair.
I believe that we al understand that most players that make a large or huge pre flop raise will not lay down post flop; if fact, most players that hold K-K or A-A, absolutely have no intention of folding post flop. Most times, regardless of the flop, they move “All In!” Most times, an open then shove move is successful. Why? Simply because they are up against another pair and that is a four to one advantage. Since the opponent only has two cards left to make his or her hand out of 47 unseen cards at that point, the result is 47/2 or 23 -1 odds of catching, so any good player lays the lower pair down and move on to the next hand; live to play helps you survive in tournaments.
Everyone knows that Aces are favored to win against one opponent heads up 88% of the time but did you know that Aces versus an opponent that hold 5-6 suited in a suit other than the Aces are only a 76% to 24% favorite? Of course you must get lucky but there is an enormous payoff if you do!
What do we mean we mean when we say “Odds”? This is the most popular expression of representing our chances of winning; so if we will win one time out of three, then our odds are expressed as 2 – 1 against meaning that we win one and lose two times which is the same as a 33 1/3 percentage of winning.
But what if you have one of the other hands like 5-6, 6-7, 7-8 and 8-9 in suits other than the high pocket pair? Well, let’s look into this as in a heads up situation, two players:
Odds of flopping a full house: 1087-1
Odds of flopping a straight: 76-1
Odds of flopping a set: 63-1
Odds of flopping two pair: 24-1
Odds of flopping one pair: 3-1
Odds of flopping a “four flush”: 44-1
Odds are rounded up for this example.
Now lets us take this a little farther and look at Turn and the River, too; let’s look into this as in a heads up situation, two players:
Pre flop, As-Ad versus 8h-9c in suits other than the high pocket pair posses:
Pre flop the percentages are: 81 to 19 percent, approximately
After the Flop of 9h 7h 6d, the percentages are: 50 to 47 percent, approximately.
Consider that a back door flush odds are 23 – 1 against
Now, let’s consider your chances without bluffing, which is always an option; to figure your chances of winning, first we must consider your outs. An “out” is any card that will improve your hand. You hold 8h-9c 9h 7h 6d, so two nines, three eights, four tens and four fives; that is a total of 13 outs, times two (Turn and River). I developed a rather simple but fairly accurate system a couple of years ago. I use 4.5% for outs on the turn and 2.3% on the River times the number of out. That gives me a percentage that I convert and use to make my decision with in the hand.
Of course, you need to remember that everything in poker is situational. What is the person’s poker playing style? Is he or she a loose aggressive player of a tight to the vest player that only plays premium pairs of A-K? Is he or she playing position; what is you position pre flop? Are they are calling station? Do you have then covered in chips? Will they lay down to a big raise? Is it late in the tournament where you need to win a big hand? Is your “M” low? How many big blinds do you have left? Get the picture? Right! OK.
Now, back to the “outs” situation. That was a very good flop for us and with 13 outs on the turn, we have a 58% chance of winning but we know he has Aces, so try to keep the betting down, which is not likely but possible once in a while.
On the River, if you miss on the Turn. You still have 13 outs at 2.3% that is a 30% chance of winning a gigantic pot, so the decision is up to you, now… what do you think that you should do?
Every poker tournament comes down to this type of decision and the pros have the same decisions; time to step up, grasshopper.
richkat0725
How much you charge for lessons... :-) Please keep em coming !!!