card player magazine .com did a video interview with billy koop the chip leader for days who finished 12th with a 20 million chip bet into a 4 million pot. Billy flopped a flush (35 of) he flopped flush with junk. Darvin moon also flopped flush(qj of) and was just callin billy's bets. on 4th st. the board paired so billy figured his flush was good so didnt want moon to see river and hit another flush card, so he bet allin. moon calls and billy is out 12th.. In the interview billy says he bet allin as a bluff figuring that if moon had a flush he would still have to fold to a possible full house, so he blamed moon for a bad play to call allin vs possible boat. my read on the hand was koop was trying to protect his flush and was wrong and major over bet the pot and it cost him millions of real dollars
OMG..this blog is funny. I have to strongly disagree with both of you. Billy Kopp made a great play against a novice player. I agree 100% with Billy. When the turn pairs 2's all flushes have to fold. Billy bet turn, and Darvin raised, and Kopp 3 bet all-in, a flush cannot call there in that stage of the tournament. Moon just got lucky in making the call cause he had no idea what Kopp had and was just playing his cards. There were a ton of hands that have you dead on that turn.
Of coarse your read on the hand is that he was just protecting his baby flush because you got to see his hole cards while it played out. Put yourself in Darvin Moon's shoes, if you have a flush and the board pairs on the turn and you raise and some player goes all-in do you really think the 3rd best flush is good. Think of the hand in a different way. If Billy Kopp has a full house Darvin still calls because he thought his weak flush was good the whole way.
Sorry I am going on and on but this situation is a good topic. Darvin Moon is a nice guy and a card rack but there is just no way he is winning the MAIN EVENT. What happens when his cards go cold? I will say this agin...Kopp made a great play against the wrong opponent who cant fold a weak flush and I stand by that 100%
It's the 2nd best flush not the 3rd. Moon had the Qd and Kd was on the board. Anyway, saying you can't call in that spot is saying you can't call whatever cards Kopp has so just muck 2nd nut flush whatever, and you could also say that Kopp shoving all in is a move you can't make too because Moon could have the nut flush or a boat. Moon called and got it right. Kopp made a move and got called by a better hand. Kopp better player yes, Moon novice (kind of) yes. But Kopp played HIS weak flush bad.
Would have been a great play against any of the other remaining players...Kopp had Moon on a flush, he said so in a post interview...There is no way on earth that Moon was ever laying down that strong of a hand, it's just not how he got there...Representing the boat on the turn to try to get flush to fold is a very advanced play, Kopp didn't have any reason to belive that Moon would fold in that spot...Norm Chad got it right when he said he should have small balled the baby flush....
There is simply no way to explain putting in that many chips with that hand, on that board, against that player...After Moon raises 4M he is never folding, even I know that...He must be a Scotty fan...
It is indeed a very advanced play because you are representing the stone cold nuts, which is a hand you would check so you shove to make a kind of triple bluff so you opponent thinks you are are representing a steal but actually have the nuts which you would check so you shove to show weakness to show strengh to show....... Moon had him on a range of hands and called hoping he was right - as shifty says that how he got so far in the tourney - the man has balls gl to him. But he won't win.
BIG BALLS IN COWTOWN all u can say, really no differant than not trying bluff the novice, small ball was the correct path, i would say he was very tired after 8 days of stress he messed up & over played it, hes young & going to be a force for years i bet, i still think Moon has be the 3ed favorite to win & i bet hes learned alot in last 3 months,
I see all your points. Yeah your right it was 2nd nut flush but it wasnt the nuts by far. I guess it was a good call but at that stage of the tournament I think maybe he might of been the only player to call there. Its a very tough call to make and Moon has to sit back and think if Kopp is going to risk all his chips there without the NUTS. I seriously doubt it.
Yep but he DID risk all his chips without the nut flush on a paired board. I don't know if I would make the call - but my guess is if I was somehow lucky (really lucky!!!) enough to be in Moon's position I'd call to give myself a chance to win the Main Event against better players. And if Ivey had made that call everyone would be yelling "wtg what a call, he's a genius". I think Gus Hansen would call, Chris Ferguson wouldn't and Ivey might. And you can bet that Kopp and Moon's hearts were PUMPIN
Kopp is NEVER shoving a winning hand in that spot, and he knows that his 5 high flush is never good. How many hands containing a 2 would he have taken that line with up until the turn? Only 22 right? So he was expecting Moon, a total first level thinker, to be able to put him on quads? Kopp had a very loose image at the WSOP and always has...(he is mostly an internet player and is widely known as a maniac)
He didn't even have Moon covered, evaporating much of the fear equity that he had been exploiting for two days as the chip leader. By trying to bully bluff the amateur chip leader, he basically ran buck naked through Moon's backyard and Darvin just had to pick him off...I say even Ferguson calls here, he really didn't tell a very convincing story for any winning hand. Any pro should have been able to sniff out either a lower flush semi bluff or all out bluff.....
All I say is Kopp is full of it. If you watch the hand and watch his reaction, he is mad at himself, not at Moon. You have to consider that Moon has 25 mill in chips compared to 20 mill for Kopp at the beginning of the hand. He had made a raise to 6m on the turn before Kopp moved in. He has 8 mill in the pot when Kopp moves in for his remaining 10-11 mill. When he calls the 11 mill bet there was over 27 mill in the pot already. So as a poker player how can you fold this? Unless....
You are completely convinced that Kopp has you beat? We only see a small fraction of the hands on TV, we don't know about the hands leading up to this hand. We don't know if Kopp had raised the previous 10 hands, or been a rock for hours. It is impossible to judge this completely based on the information at hand. The reality is it seems like the big chip stack taking a chance when he has a very strong hand. Or he had a read on Kopp. Which honestly Moon seems like a luckbox except.....
for the fact that his chip stack never really drops. Most luck boxes play too many hands and their chip stacks are like roller coasters. Here is another point of view. A logical play from Kopp if he has a set is to raise the flop, find out where he is. He did not do that, his over the top raise on the turn smells completely fishy. If I was in Moons spot I would have called as well. No doubt in my mind. His raise smelt like he was representing to me, if he had boated up....
he would more than likely call the raise, and then make a big bet on the turn with his boat. His bet smelt like a steal the second he did it. It was a steal with a small flush, and he got caught, no one to blame but his own illogical play in the hand, from start to finish, not just the bet on the turn.
Sorry I meant a big bet on the river instead of the all in raise on the turn. Cannot edit the comments
The times does have the flopped nut flush or quads would be so rare that call is the correct play(to me). Accepting the possiblity of a cooler, the math says call.(not pot odds math, just measuring how many times he has you beat vs. how may times he is shoving with a worse hand)
I still think that anyone he had covered probably would have folded, due to the huge bubble factor. Any pro in that exact situation should call I think...With an emphasis on THINK...
One last consideration, Moon would be like most of us. Looking at close to a million dollar payday. Yes we want to win the whole thing, and be the world champion, but are we really upset if we leave with $900,000. I know I sure wouldn't be. I am thinking he wouldn't have been upset if he was wrong in that hand, he is already living a dream at that stage.
ok lets say billy has the nuts, he raised pre flop with pocket pair any of the 2 cards except 22 so he has full house on 4th st. ok he bets his set on flop vs flush board and now he hits his boat. on 4th street he going to make moon put 7/8 of his chips in or is he going to bet a pot size bet to keep him in and allin river.
also i wasnt really commenting on billys play as much as i was commenting on billy excuse for the play in the interview.
just because we are talkin about billy and we now know who he is he will cash in on it but not for 12 million lol
All of these opinions are good. I would say the most important factor should have been that Kopp is a pro (?) and should have taken the amateur play into account before making an overbet move and hitting the rail. Really no point to make that move at that time no matter how the cards lay.
If you read Darvin Moon's description of the hand prior to the television episode...he was emphatic that there was not a pair on the board. He was emphatic that the 2 paired a 2 in Koops hand. Also, he mentioned that Koop had raised his bb 7 or 8 times and he felt it was time to take a stand. In the way he misread the hand it explained why he played the way he did. Either way Koop was too aggressive at that stage and should have laid it down after the raise.
It was a big hand and maybe Moon doesn't remeber it to well but that doesn't mean he didn't know what was going on at the time. I recall my first big win (all $250 of it!!!!) at poker when I crashed out in 3rd place and 1st paid almost $800. I have no memory of the last hand because I was tense, hoping I would make the right decision and my heart was pumping like crazy. In the same situation again I'd be totally calm and accept the win or the loss. This was Moon's (and Kopp's) 1st spot this big
Smartson...How can you call Darvin Moon a luckbox...he's played extremely well and I haven't seen him call from behind once. He even smooth called AA and when 2 9's hit the board he slowed down and took a minimum chips loss. That and he's a trapper. I've seen him check the winner to naked agression several times. Sorry dude...just not seeing "Luckbox" in his play.
I thought smarston was saying that he seems like a luckbox but in fact he isn't. Moon admits he caught good cards and they flopped well and that he was lucky to get so far - but he had to play well and keep his head to do it. He is the weakest player at the final table but he still has a chance to win if he plays a good game. Who knows? Dennis Phillips caught the cards last year to make the final 9 and then looked like a beginner at the final table - but has since proved himself at the game.
Swighey, I was with you until you said Moon was the weakest player at the table. I disagree with you there strongly. I have to say Begleiter is the weakest player at the table in my opinion, and Akenhead I would also rank lower than Moon. We haven't really had a chance to see him play any tough decisions, his cards have played for him. So far though he hasn't made any mistakes or major mis steps.
I'm happy to disagree about Moon and Begleiter - I'm just going on what I've seen, as I said who knows. Akenhead is a very very strong player - and many pros in the UK predicted he would do something big in the WSOP this year, before it began. Neil Channing has a 25% stake in him (Channing is a decent tourney player, an excellent cash game player, and an even better staker). AK final tables the WSOPE as well. He has a history of being the nearly man in major tourneys but his all round game is A1
I will add my 2 cents first off 12 left in main event why even play 35s and why play vs the only guy at table that has u covered now if u do play it and u do flop the flush make bet and get called u have to hit the brakes until the river comes to a non diamand now if it turns paired u hit brakes again because u are easily making the final table with 23mill in chips and risking more then 8 mill is crazy but risking 23mill..HE THOUGHT HE WAS GOOD AND LOST
swighey
He was playing to lose. He gave himself and excuse for making a bad play. We've all done it. Difference is we didn't bust out 12th in the WSOP Main Event and scoop a big pay day. Ivey mucked the winning hand. Ivey made 2 elementary erros and got lucky on the way to winning the lowball bracelet. The pros are just as bad as the rest of us, just far less consistently bad.